MetPVNet - Satellite and meteorology-assisted prediction of PV power generation at the distribution grid level: development, validation, application
Research project at a glance
Funding type
Period
01.11.2017 to 28.02.2021
Website
Project Description
By 2050, the share of renewable energy sources in Germany is to increase to 80% of gross electricity consumption as part of the energy transition. This requires a more effective adaptation of grid management to the increased weather dependency of electricity feed-in to the grid. In particular, the decentralized feed-in of electricity from photovoltaic systems presents distribution grid operators with new challenges in terms of grid expansion, grid operation and market integration. Here, improved forecasts of the weather-dependent variability of photovoltaic (PV) yields at the plant level have direct economic consequences as an important determinant of energy market costs, both for control energy and in redispatch. In addition, improved forecasting enables the exploitation of optimization potentials in voltage maintenance and in reactive power compensation. The present application addresses these challenges by (further) developing innovative energy meteorological methods for satellite-based forecasts of irradiation and PV power at the plant level, and testing their application in the context of innovative energy management at the distribution grid level.
The project is to be achieved through a network of 5 work packages (WP), which already pursue innovative sub-objectives and are interlinked as described below:
The first work package (WP1) describes the derivation of high-resolution global radiation from satellite and ground observations and is linked to the work packages AP3, AP4 and AP5.
The work packages WP3 and WP4 are mutually closely linked and are in turn linked as a unit to work package WP2.
The fourth work package WP4 includes measurement campaigns in the Allgäu and the derivation of atmospheric information from measurement data.
Work package WP3 deals with radiative transfer and photovoltaic power modeling.
Work package WP2 covers the assimilation and prediction of photovoltaic relevant cloud information and is in turn linked to work package WP5 Forecast-based products for distribution grid management. The purpose of this linkage is to establish forecast requirements and obtain forecast data for case studies.
The first and fifth work packages are also linked to identify requirements for observational data and to obtain short-term forecasts for case studies.
In addition, project coordination is also located outside the content linkage as the sixth work package.
For the improvement of satellite-based energy meteorological forecasts on the distribution grid level, work is being done on improving the overall model chain and here in particular with regard to the cloud-dependent fluctuation of radiation fields. This is to be achieved, among other things, by linking scientific expertise from the fields of atmospheric science and renewable energies and the resulting synergies, as well as through transdisciplinary exchange.
Results
On the basis of detailed network analyses for a real medium-voltage network area, it was shown that both the integration of forecast data based on satellites and weather data and the improvement of next-day forecasts based on numerical weather models have a clear added value for forecast-based congestion management or Redispatch and reactive power management in the distribution network. Short-term forecasts based on satellite data also have a positive effect. Another important added value of the project is also the feedback of the critical forecast situations from the point of view of the use cases, so that, as already shown in the project and beyond, forecasts can be designed and optimized in a more targeted way for the application in the distribution grid operation. Furthermore, forecast improvements for the forecast model of the German Weather Service could be achieved by assimilating visible satellite images. Furthermore, cloud and radiation products from satellites were improved and thus the data basis for the short-term forecast as well as for the assimilation. Furthermore, several methods were developed that could lead to further forecast improvement in the future, especially for weather situations with high forecast errors. Such situations were identified from the perspective of network operations and with the help of satellite-based analyses of the overall weather situation for the periods of the MetPVNet measurement campaigns. In particular, these were situations with heavy or highly variable cloud cover. For the MetPVNet measurement campaigns, the deviation of the ground-level insolation from satellite data or from radiation forecasts was quantified on the basis of a training data set and depending on the variability class. In the future, this type of information will offer the possibility to evaluate the forecast quality.
Publications
2024
Jonas Witthuhn, Anja Hünerbein, Florian Filipitsch, Stefan Wacker, Stefanie Meilinger, Hartwig Deneke:
Aerosol properties and aerosol–radiation interaction in clear-skies over Germany for the period from 2003 to 2020.
doi:10.1063/5.0184865
BibTeX | RIS
2023
James Barry, Stefanie Meilinger, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Anna Herman-Czezuch, Nicola Kimiaie, Christopher Schirrmeister, Rone Yousif, Tina Buchmann, Johannes Grabenstein, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, Claudia Emde, Felix Gödde, Bernhard Mayer, Leonhard Scheck, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, Philipp Hofbauer, Matthias Struck:
Datasets for "Irradiance and cloud optical properties from solar photovoltaic systems" (final version).
doi:10.5281/zenodo.8335791
BibTeX | RIS
James Barry, Stefanie Meilinger, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Anna Herman-Czezuch, Nicola Kimiaie, Christopher Schirrmeister, Rone Yousif, Tina Buchmann, Johannes Grabenstein, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, Claudia Emde, Felix Gödde, Bernhard Mayer, Leonhard Scheck, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, Philipp Hofbauer, Matthias Struck:
Irradiance and cloud optical properties from solar photovoltaic systems.
PDF Download (CC BY 4.0) doi:10.5194/amt-2022-335 urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-67744
BibTeX | RIS
2022
James Barry, Stefanie Meilinger, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Felix Gödde, Bernhard Mayer, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, Leonhard Scheck, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, Philipp Hofbauer, Matthias Struck:
Irradiance and cloud optical properties from photovoltaic power data under variable atmospheric conditions.
PDF Download (Meeting Abstract, CC BY 4.0) doi:10.5194/ems2022-713 urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-63047
BibTeX | RIS
Anna Herman-Czezuch, Armelle Zemo Mekeng, Stefanie Meilinger, James Barry, Nicola Kimiaie:
Impact of aerosols on photovoltaic energy production using a spectrally resolved model chain: Case study of southern West Africa.
doi:10.1016/j.renene.2022.04.166
BibTeX | RIS
Abdullah Altayara, Markus Kraiczy, Friederike Wenderoth, Kevin Winter, Philipp Hofbauer, Stefanie Meilinger, Martin Braun:
Techno-Economic Assessment of PV Forecast Accuracy for a Predictive Congestion Management at the Distribution Level.
doi:10.1049/icp.2021.1663 URL
BibTeX | RIS
2021
Stefanie Meilinger, Anna Herman-Czezuch, Nicola Kimiaie, Christopher Schirrmeister, Rone Yousif, Stefan Geiss, Leonhard Scheck, Martin Weissmann, Felix Gödde, Bernhard Mayer, Tobias Zinner, James Barry, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Markus Kraiczy, Kevin Winter, Abdullah Altayara, Christian Reise, Mariella Rivera, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, Jethro Betcke, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, Philipp Hofbauer, Bernhard Rindt:
Development of innovative satellite-based methods for improved PV yield prediction on different time scales for distribution grid level applications (MetPVNet).
PDF Download doi:10.18418/978-3-96043-094-0 urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-60399
BibTeX | RIS
Stefanie Meilinger, Anna Herman-Czezuch, Nicola Kimiaie, Christopher Schirrmeister, Rone Yousif, Stefan Geiss, Leonhard Scheck, Martin Weissmann, Felix Gödde, Bernhard Mayer, Tobias Zinner, James Barry, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Markus Kraiczy, Kevin Winter, Abdullah Altayara, Christian Reise, Mariella Rivera, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, Jethro Betcke, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, Philipp Hofbauer, Bernhard Rindt:
Entwicklung innovativer satellitengestützter Methoden zur verbesserten PV-Ertragsvorhersage auf verschiedenen Zeitskalen für Anwendungen auf Verteilnetzebene: Schlussbericht.
PDF Download doi:10.18418/opus-5955 urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-59554
BibTeX | RIS
Jonas Witthuhn, Anja Hünerbein, Florian Filipitsch, Stefan Wacker, Stefanie Meilinger, Hartwig Deneke:
Aerosol properties and aerosol–radiation interactions in clear-sky conditions over Germany.
PDF Download (CC BY 4.0) doi:10.5194/acp-21-14591-2021 urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-59535
BibTeX | RIS
Markus Kraiczy, Abdullah Altayara, Friederike Wenderoth, Kevin Winter, Philipp Hofbauer, Stefanie Meilinger, Martin Braun:
Benefits of advanced PV power forecasts for congestion management and reactive power management at the distribution level.
URL URL
BibTeX | RIS
Stefanie Meilinger, Rone Yousif, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt:
Wolkentypbedingte Abweichung zwischen der gemessenen Strahlungsvariabilität und satellitengestützten Vorhersagemodellen.
BibTeX | RIS
James Barry, Anna Herman-Czezuch, Daniel Fischer, Stefanie Meilinger, Rone Yousif, Felix Gödde, Alexander Bergenthal:
Photovoltaic-battery systems as irradiance sensors: first results of a prototype study.
PDF Download (CC BY 4.0) doi:10.5194/ems2021-392 urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-58175
BibTeX | RIS
Jonas Witthuhn, Anja Hünerbein, Florian Filipitsch, Stefan Wacker, Stefanie Meilinger, Hartwig Deneke:
Aerosol properties and aerosol–radiation interactions in clear sky conditions over Germany.
PDF Download (CC BY 4.0) doi:10.5194/acp-2021-517 urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-56606
BibTeX | RIS
James Barry, Dirk Böttcher, Johannes Grabenstein, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Anna Herman-Czezuch, Nicola Kimiaie, Stefanie Meilinger, Christopher Schirrmeister, Felix Gödde, Bernhard Mayer, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, Philipp Hofbauer, Matthias Struck:
Irradiance and atmospheric optical properties from photovoltaic power data: model improvements and first results.
PDF Download (Meeting Abstract, CC BY 4.0) doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7581 urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-54013
BibTeX | RIS
2020
James Barry, Dirk Böttcher, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Anna Herman-Czezuch, Nicola Kimiaie, Stefanie Meilinger, Christopher Schirrmeister, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, Felix Gödde:
Dynamic model of photovoltaic module temperature as a function of atmospheric conditions.
PDF Download (CC BY 4.0) doi:10.5194/asr-17-165-2020 urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-50017
BibTeX | RIS
2019
Stefanie K. Meilinger, Anna Herman-Czezuch:
Impact of atmospheric parameters on the performance of photovoltaic systems – study of spectral effects.
URL
BibTeX | RIS
Felix Gödde, Bernhard Mayer, Tobias Zinner, Jonas Witthuhn, Hartwig Deneke, Christopher Schirrmeister:
Predicting variability of horizontal surface solar irradiance using machine learning.
PDF Download (CC BY 4.0) urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-49959
BibTeX | RIS
James Barry, Dirk Böttcher, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Anna Herman-Czezuch, Stefanie Meilinger, Christopher Schirrmeister, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn:
Photovoltaic system calibration with dynamic temperature model as a function of atmospheric conditions.
PDF Download (CC BY 4.0) urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-49940
BibTeX | RIS
Anna Herman-Czezuch, Stefanie Meilinger, Susanne Crewell:
Impact of atmospheric parameters on the performance of photovoltaic systems - study of spectral effects.
PDF Download (Meeting Abstract, CC BY 4.0) urn:nbn:de:hbz:1044-opus-49932
BibTeX | RIS
2018
C. Schirrmeister, J. Barry, T. Buchmann, H. Deneke, B. Ernst, S. Geiß, F. Gödde, A. Hermann-Czezuch, P. Hofbauer, S. Killinger, B. Mayer, B. Müller, I. Neher, K. Pfeilsticker, B. Rindt, M. Schroedter-Homscheid, J.-L. Tirpitz, M. Weissmann, J. Witthuhn, T. Zinner, S. Meilinger:
Messkampagnen im Projekt METPVNET zur Verbesserung der PV- Erzeugungsprognose auf Verteilnetzebene.
BibTeX | RIS
Cooperation partners
Sponsors
Links
Further links